Lionfish aren't very common where A. aculeatus live, they're nocturnal (rather than the diurnal octos), and they're fairly brightly colored, so the octos probably aren't mimicking them. As for what it might be trying to look like in the second picture with the "simething new soon" label- I can't think of a specific item on the reef flat- dead rotting algae, black plastic bag...who knows. If it is aiming for a visual defense, it might be effective just to sent the signal "you're not looking at an octopus" to a potential predator without needing a specific model to mimic. It could also bring the arms closer for some hydrodynamic advantage over the sprawled posture.